Speech 1998 - 1999
Part I

 

In the name of Allah, the Beneficent and Merciful

 

Mr. Speaker,

I seek your leave to place before this august House the budget for the financial year 1998-99 and the supplementary budget for 1997-98.

2. National budget is not a mere compilation of cold statistics of income and expenditure of the government. The hopes and aspirations of the people are reflected in the national budget. Although the approval of a budget relates to a specific financial year, every budget in reality reflects the successes and failures of the past years, the compulsions and priorities of the present and the guidelines for the future. I would, therefore, like to recount the experience of the past, analyse the present situation and envision the future. In reality, we can reach our desired goals only by implementing the economic activities outlined in the budget.

3. The national identity of the Bengali people was shaped gradually through the historical war of independence and relentless struggle of the awakened masses for democratic rights. At the outset I remember with profound reverence the great hero of our liberation struggle, noble dreamer of the Golden Bengal, the architect of independent and sovereign Bangladesh and the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. His mission to build the Golden Bengal on the basis of economic growth and social justice was suddenly interrupted by the sinister conspiracy of the assassins. With his martyrdom, the ugly forces opposed to the spirit and ideals of the liberation struggle surfaced. Fortunately for us Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has come forward to complete the unfinished tasks of Bangabandhu. Her noble sacrifice and fearless leadership for the establishment of democratic and civil society in the post-independent Bangladesh will forever be written in golden letters in our history. Under her leadership, the people of this country not only regained voting right but also escaped from economic stagnation. I remember with profound respect those valiant and fearless sons of Bangladesh whose supreme sacrifices have earned us a free, independent and democratic Bangladesh. I also recall with gratitude the invaluable contribution of the four national leaders who were close associates of the Father of the Nation. From the deepest core of the hearts of the grateful nation, the noble song - we shall never forget you - will be reverberating for all time to come. Our aim is the realization of those noble ideals which animated the Father of the Nation and the freedom fighters to make supreme sacrifices. We do not aim at achieving growth for the sake of growth only. We want to see percolation of the benefits of growth to the masses. In preparing this budget I was inspired by the firm commitment of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who has vowed to bring smiles on the faces of the poor.

Mr. Speaker,

4. In last June when we prepared the budget we expected that Bangladesh would experience rapid growth in a stable and tranquil international economic environment. But within a short period we were confronted with the totally unexpected and difficult reality of a turbulent and volatile international economic environment. Globalized economy has, on the one hand, opened magic windows of immense opportunities and on the other hand, exposed us to unknown dangers. The slump in the economies of the East and South East Asian countries which were once branded as mighty tigers, was unthinkable. But now it is a reality. One can gauge the depth of this crisis from the following statistics. Indonesian currency fell by about 80 percent against the value of dollar at the peak of the crisis. The value of currencies of Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines decreased by 35 to 50 percent. As a result of the crash in the share market, assets to the tune of 40 percent of the GDP of these countries were wiped out. IMF predicted 4.25 percent growth in 1998 for the world economy before the onset of the financial crisis. Because of the crisis this estimate has been reduced to about 3 percent. The economies in some countries of South East Asia will not grow at all, some of them may even contract significantly this year. This crisis has not remained confined to East and South East Asia only. Its influence is felt in varying degrees in other regions also.

5. By the grace of Allah the Merciful, Bangladesh has been able to safeguard herself from the contagion of this terrible crisis. We have been able to protect our macro economy from potential disaster by adopting a prudent credit policy, a flexible exchange rate management, careful supervision of the banking sector and relentless endeavours in balancing public income and expenditure under the sagacious and strong leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. But the threat to the world economy is not over yet. Many countries in Asia are now struggling to cope with deepening economic crisis and increased trade competitiveness. In the face of this stiff competition we must implement reforms without delay and prepare ourselves to face the fierce competition unleashed by the forces of free market economy. Towards this end we must complete all the economic reforms in the shortest span of time. In a sense the so-called miracle economies of South East Asia are victims of their remarkable success. Blinded by rapid growth, they failed to realize the inherent weaknesses in their economic systems. Consequently they are paying a heavy premium now. Such economic crisis is not at all unheard of. In the thirties of this century the entire western hemisphere was plunged into a great economic depression. In this regard we should remember the note of warning in IMP'S World Economic Forecast 1998 : "Serious financial crises are not a new phenomenon and they will occur in the future. With the increasing globalization of financial markets and the apparent tendency for the investors to react exuberantly to success, belatedly to emerging concerns and eventually to overreact as sentiment changes, it may well be that risk of crisis is rising including the scope for international contagion". We shall have to remain ever vigilant not only in the management of the financial system, but also in the management of the macro-economy.

6. International economic stability alone is not sufficient for development, political stability is also essential. Suitable regional environment in economic and political spheres is a precondition for growth. In the past, attempts were made to create congenial regional atmosphere but these efforts failed to produce results because of weaknesses in political leadership. Under the strong and farsighted leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the present government has taken certain historic steps to reduce tension and to enhance cooperation in the region. The Peace Treaty for Chittagong Hill Tracts is the realization of a long-cherished dream of the nation. This treaty will stimulate economic growth and protect the constitutional rights of the less advanced communities. The historic Ganges Water Treaty has laid the foundation for the development of agriculture in Bangladesh. The recently held 3-nation summit has established new links among the entrepreneurs and business leaders of these three important countries. In general, a new horizon has been unfolded for peace and stability on a long term basis in the South Asian region.

Mr. Speaker,

7. In order to attain proper coordination in the development activities, the Government has already approved Fifth Five Year Plan covering the period 1997 to 2002. This plan makes a significant departure from the previous plans on two counts. First, the Fifth Five-year plan is not the instrument of a command economy. The targets of the plan are indicative. These targets will be revised in the backdrop of the changed circumstances. However, the main objectives of the Plan will remain unchanged. Secondly, the driving force of this Plan is the private sector. It is expected that about 56 percent of the total investment will come from private sector. The main strategy of the Plan is not to expand public investment but to encourage increased investment by private sector, by maintaining macro stability and by creating infrastmctural facilities. Our aim is eradication of poverty through accelerated growth. Employment opportunities will be created in a planned framework. Efforts will be intensified to improve the quality of life in the rural areas. The key to economic development of Bangladesh is the human resource development. Literacy rate will be raised from 47 percent to 70 percent in year 2002. Life expectancy will be raised to 60 years. Population growth rate will be reduced from 1.75 percent to 1.32 percent during the plan period. The proportion of the poor in total population will be reduced from 45 percent to 30 percent by the year 2002. Economic growth will make more resources available for the development of human resources and this in turn will reinforce growth process.

Mr. Speaker,

8. In the budget speech for 1997-98, I predicted a growth rate of 5.7 percent in GDP for 1996-97 which coincided with the first year of the present government's term. According to the final figures, the actual growth rate achieved in the last financial year was 5.9 percent. The preliminary estimates indicate that growth in 1997-98 is 5.6 percent. This growth rate is comparable to that of last year. It may be noted here that according to the data of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics never before in Bangladesh such high growth rates were achieved for two consecutive years by any previous government. The growth rate of 1997-98 has, therefore, added a new dimension in our economic history. The rapid increase in growth rate of last two years indicates strongly the success of the government's economic policies. Owing to unfavourable weather, growth of agricultural sector decelerated in FY 1998-99 compared to FY 1997-98. In 1996-97 actual growth rate in agriculture was 6.4 percent. In 1997-98 production in agriculture has expanded but the growth rate will decline to 3 percent. Aman rice production was lower than last year by 7.2 percent due mainly to adverse weather conditions. Because of record production in boro and wheat, crop subsector in the current year is expected to register a growth rate of about 1 percent. Higher growth rates in fishery, forest and livestock sub-sectors will enable the attainment of a growth rate of 3.1 percent in agricultural sector. In the industrial sector growth is faster in the current year than last year. In 1996-97 overall growth rate in industrial sector was 3.5 percent. In the current year this growth rate has increased to 8.1 percent . In the case of large industries the rate is higher. Last year large industries grew by 3.3 percent; this year, by 10.1 percent. Last year growth rate in small scale industrial sub-sector was 3.9 percent; in the current year this rate has gone up to 4.2 percent. In the construction sector the growth rate has increased to 6.2 percent from 4.9 percent. In other sectors also growth rates have accelerated. It appears that besides agriculture growth rates in commercial services and mineral resources sector may decline slightly.

9. For estimation of inflation two indices are currently in use in Bangladesh. The base of one set of index is 1973-74 and this index is compiled on the basis of prices of consumer goods of the middle-class of Dhaka city. The average of 12 monthly inflation rates calculated on the basis of this index has been for a long time quoted in the budget speeches as the annual estimated inflation rate. Recently a new index has been developed on the basis of the prices of consumer goods in different regions and taking 1985-86 as base year. The basis of this estimate is comprehensive. However, at the initial stages a large number of tests had to be carried out. Hence this inflation rate was not used in the earlier budget speeches. Today I propose to present estimates of both inflation rates on the basis of average of 12 monthly rates. In the month of April, 1998 the inflation rate was 6.28 percent on the basis of the old index. In June 1997 this index stood at 3.9 percent; in June 1996, 4.1 percent, and in June 1995, 5.2 percent. According to the new index in April 1998, the inflation rate was 6.63 percent. In June 1997 the rate was 2.51 percent and in June 1996, 6.65 percent. On the basis of both the indices the inflation rate has increased compared to last year. According to experts current inflationary pressure is due to unexpected shortfalls in Aman production. Meanwhile record boro and wheat crop is being reaped. On completion of harvesting the inflation rate is expected to decline. Because of vagaries of nature such seasonality in the inflation rate is not unusual. However, the Government is determined to curb any long term inflationary pressure. Towards this end monetary and fiscal policies are reviewed regularly. The uncertainties of inflation will never be allowed to destabilize the macro stability and the Government will not hesitate to take any stern measure to contain inflationary pressure.

10. A cautious monetary policy was pursued in the current fiscal year. In November 1997 bank rate at which central bank provides credit to the commercial banks was raised from 7.5 percent to 8 percent. During July-February 1997-98 narrow money supplies (M-l) increased by only 1.6 percent. The rate of increase for the corresponding period last year was 11 percent. Growth rate of broad money supplies (M-2) decreased slightly this year compared to corresponding period of last year. During July-February last year the rate of growth of M-2was 5.92 percent, in the current year the rate is 5.1 percent. Despite cautious monetary policy, the availability of credit to private sector was increased by reducing growth of credit to public sector. During July-February last year government's borrowing from the banking system increased by 18.7 percent. In the current year government's borrowing for the corresponding period increased by 5.54 percent only. During July-February period credit for the public sector increased by Tk 444 crore whereas credit for the private sector increased by Tk 2409.7 crore raising the total to Tk 37914.8 crore. A portion of government borrowing from the commercial banks has been utilized to repay the accumulated debt to Bangladesh Bank. Government's borrowing from the central bank decreased by Tk 175.48 crore on May 20, 1998 compared to total borrowing on June 30, 1997. 11. In the turbulent international economic climate, growth of world export decelerated in 1998. According to projections of International Monetary Fund, exports from developing countries increased by 10.8 percent in 1997. In 1998 growth rate of exports from developing countries will drop to 7.4 percent. Compared to average performance of developing countries, the performance of exports from Bangladesh during last two years is highly encouraging. In 1996-97, exports from Bangladesh in dollar terms increased by 13.8 percent. In the July-April period in 1997-98, it accelerated to 16.75 percent. The rate of growth of exports in Bangladesh is more than 200 percent higher than that of the developing countries. Imports during first six months of the current fiscal year increased by 2.21 percent. However, imports of industrial raw materials during this period registered an increase of 17.7 percent. The deficit in the current account balance during the period July-December of FY 1997-98 decreased by 24.9 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. Despite a sudden increase in food imports in the later half of the current fiscal year, there has been no deterioration in the reserve situation of the country thanks to rapid increase in exports. Bangladesh Bank is pursuing a flexible exchange rate policy with a view to encouraging exports. The exchange rate is determined on the basis of daily index of Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). During the current year, so far taka was devalued against dollar on five occasions and taka depreciated by about 5.7 percent. In the backdrop of financial turmoil in South East Asia, the depreciation of currency in Bangladesh was modest. In the same period in India currency was devalued by 11.6 percent; in Pakistan, 8.3 percent, in Thailand, 33.7 percent; in South Korea, 38.28 percent; in Indonesia, 77.3 percent; in Malaysia, 33.21 percent; in Nepal, 10.1 percent and in Sri Lanka, 7.8 percent.

12. During FY 1996-97, the expatriate Bangladesh nationals remitted $1475 million. The remittance from abroad is largely influenced by international economic environment. Despite the slump in South East Asia, the remittance by Bangladesh citizens increased at a satisfactory rate. During the first eight months of the current year it increased by 7.85 percent.

Mr. Speaker,

13. On first June 1998, total foreign exchange reserve in Bangladesh Bank stood at $1.680 billion. The reserve on the same day in 1997 was $1.607 billion. There has been a slight increase in reserve during last year. This improvement was attained in the reserve position of Bangladesh despite highly unfavourable international climate. It may be mentioned here that before the assumption of office by the present government, there was a sudden fall in the foreign exchange reserve in fiscal year 1995-96. During the period 30th June, 1995 to 30th June, 1996 total reserve in Bangladesh plummeted from $3.07 billion to $2.03 billion. The present government had to endeavor very hard during last two years to arrest this fast deterioration in reserve.

14. Parallel to the rapid growth of GDP, there has been some encouraging trends in saving and investment. First, the share of investment in GDP was 11.5 percent in FY 1990-91; it increased to 17.38 percent in FY 1996-97. The experts are of the opinion that investment/GDP ratio has now increased to about 22 percent. Secondly the share of private investment in total investment is gradually rising. In FY 1990-91, the share of private investment was 50.6 percent, it increased to 62.4 percent in FY 1996-97. The experts are of the opinion that national saving rate has also increased significantly. According to latest estimates, national saving rate is estimated a about 20 percent. Since the assumption of office by the present government, foreign direct investment has increased significantly. In FY 1990-91, total foreign investment in Bangladesh stood at $35.9 million. In FY 1996-97, it increased to $320.8 million. Recently there has been a surge in foreign direct investment in electricity, energy and physical infrastructure sectors. In fiscal year 1997-98, foreign private investment in natural gas sectors stood at $320 million; in electricity, $95 million; and in telecommunications, $110 million. In other words, investment in these sectors alone stood at $525 million (equivalent to Tk. 2450 crore). Furthermore, investment to the tune of $363 million was registered in the Board of Investment during the period July, 1996 to December, 1997 in addition to investments listed above. Moreover, Infrastructure Development Company has been set up under the aegis of the government with a loan of $225 million from IDA. It will attract foreign direct investment in physical infrastructure through provision of concessional loans.

Mr. Speaker,

15. The shocks of world economy impinge on our economy in various ways. Much more complex than the shocks of the world economy are long-standing internal problems. The losses of state-owned enterprises are mounting; the reforms in banks and financial institutions are incomplete and administrative systems needs to be streamlined. The previous governments tried sporadically to grapple with these long standing problems. However, due to lack of political commitment the reform measures undertaken by them did not produce any sustainable result. The present government has unstinted support to reform programmes. We are determined not only to resolve these problems through reforms but also to create new opportunities in the economic sphere. The present government is implementing in a phased manner all the reforms pledged in its election manifesto of 1996. We pledged in 1996 that we will strengthen local government institutions through administrative decentralization. In the first phase a high level committee was constituted for reforming local government system. On the recommendation of this committee, a law on the Grameen Parishad (village council) has been enacted. In carrying out development activities, the village council will act as the link between the village and union. The Union Parishads have been reorganized. Previously there were three wards in each union; now there are nine. Under the new system female members of UP are directly elected. In the meanwhile, elections of Union Parishads have been concluded peaceftilly. Measures have already been taken to set up Upazila Parishad at Thana level and it is expected that democratically elected local government will come into being at this level by next December. District councils will be reorganized in the next phase.

16. Important measures have been taken for administrative and legal reforms. A permanent Law Commission has already been set up by the Government. This Commission is advising the Government in the simplification of existing laws and the enactment of new laws. A training academy for the judges has already been established. A project for judicial reforms supported by the World Bank is under process. The Administrative Reforms Commission is working to establish an administrative system capable of facing the challenges of the 21st century. A project for reforms in budget and expenditure control is being implemented with the assistance of the British Government with a view to strengthening the public financial management. New classification system in the budget has been introduced as a result of this reform programme. New chalan, pay bill and other forms will be introduced from 1st of July 1998 with a view to introducing computerization in budget and accounting. Already computers have been installed in the budget wing of the Finance ministry and offices of Chief Accounts Officers. This will facilitate analysis and examination of the budget and will also render accounting system more effective.

17. The British statesman Winston Churchill used to say that socialist leaders consider profit in business as a sin, but he considers losses in business as a vice. I am of the opinion that losses in state-owned enterprises is a vice not only from the capitalistic point of view but also from the consideration of social equity and justice. The state-owned enterprises are a sacred trust of the people. The main purpose of bringing them under ownership of the state is to redistribute the benefits of these enterprises to the poor. In reality the taxes collected from the poor are now financing their losses. The losses of state-owned enterprises resulting from the accumulated liabilities and mismanagement have turned out to be a big burden for the state and the banking system of the country. Total losses of eighteen state-owned corporations (excluding banks and financial institutions) are estimated at Tk 1039.13 crore for FY 1997-98. Total accumulated losses of all state-owned enterprises excluding the financial sector stand at Tk 12357.1 crore. Throughout the world, the state-owned enterprises fail to attain their objectives. It is very unlikely that they could be profitably rehabilitated. The Government has, therefore, been pursuing a two-fold strategy. Firstly, loss-making enterprises are being closed by paying adequate compensation to officers and workers through voluntary separation schemes. Under this programme the operations in eleven BTMC mills and four newspapers and periodicals run by state-owned Press Trust have been suspended. About Tk 200 crore was spent for the voluntary separation programme in FY 1997-98. Secondly, new guidelines are being prepared for privatization. It has been decided to separate sale of surplus land of the enterprises from the privatization process. The Privatization Board has finalized arrangements for transfer of nine enterprises to the private sector in the current year and shares of nine more enterprises have been offloaded in the share market. Programmes have been adopted to hand over loss-making enterprises to the management of the workers on an experimental basis. Indeed, the success of privatization programme is very important for the future of the nation. I, therefore, seek cooperation of all irrespective of party affiliation in privatization process in the greater interest of the nation.

18. Banks and financial institutions transform savings into investment. The invisible hand of the banks ensures most efficient utilization of'financial resources. The weakness of the banking system not only threatens depositors' interest but also poisons investment climate in the country. The Government has, therefore, unequivocal commitment to the on-going financial sector reform. The Government is determined to keep the banking system in Bangladesh safe for depositors. However, the benefits of financial sector reforms cannot be reaped till the portfolios of investment in banks improve. A task force has been set up in Bangladesh Bank to intensify drive against default loans. In order to expedite the disposal of default cases, three exclusive Loan courts and two exclusive Bankruptcy courts have been set up in Dhaka and Chittagong. As a result of these efforts, the proportion of classified loan is decreasing gradually. The Banking Reforms Committee has already submitted its recommendations to streamline the banking system. A Commercial Bank Reform project has been undertaken with the assistance of the World Bank. In the near future, banking laws will be further amended to strengthen the banks.

19. Throughout the world, investment in share market is risky. Share market is run by the private sector. The main role of the government is proper regulation. With this end in view, Securities and Exchange Commission has already been strengthened. A programme for capital market development has been undertaken with the assistance of the Asian Development Bank. The Securities and Exchange Commission has already issued licenses to seventeen merchant banks. Major reforms were introduced in the management of the two bourses in the country. Computers have already been introduced in the Chittagong Stock Exchange. A loan amounting to Tk 8.4 crore was provided through BSRS on concessional terms from the revenue budget to Dhaka Stock Exchange for immediate automation. Restrictions on foreign investment in the share market have been eased. Further a provision for three year lock-in of the share of local sponsors has been introduced. The Law on Central Depository System is being enacted on a priority basis. Important proposals for tax relief to encourage the share market have been formulated. I propose to discuss these measures in the second part of my speech.

Mr. Speaker,

20. I have, so far, dwelt on the background of the budget. Let me now bring into focus the main features of the budget. The original outlay for revenue budget in FY 1997-98 was Tk 14544 crore. The revised budget estimates now stands at Tk 14500 crore. I am glad to inform this august house that as a result of close supervision and prudent management in public expenditure, no additional allocation in excess of original allocation will be necessary for the revised revenue budget. The original outlay for Annual Development Programme (ADP) 1997-98 was estimated at Tk 12800 crore. The size of the revised ADP has been estimated at TK 12200 crore, a reduction of 4.6 percent. In the original budget it was estimated that Tk 6021 crore would be provided for the ADP from the internal resources. The revised estimate for this purpose stands at Tk 5521 crore. External resource for ADP was estimated at Tk 6779 crore, the revised estimate in this regard is Tk 6679 crore.

21. For FY 1998-99 I have proposed an outlay of Tk 15937 crore in the revenue budget. This is only 9.9 percent higher than that of revised revenue budget for FY 1997-98. In FY 1997-98 the estimated revenue expenditure was 16 percent higher than that of revised budget of the previous financial year. With a view to providing maximum contribution from our own source for ADP, revenue expenditure has been cut as far as possible. For FY 1998-99, the Annual Development Programme is estimated at Tk 13600 crore. The proposed size of ADP is 11.5 percent higher than that of revised ADP for 1997-98. Estimated revenue receipts and revenue surplus for FY 1998-99 are Tk 20776 crore and Tk 4849 crore respectively. After adding net capital receipt and resources used for self-financed projects by various autonomous bodies Tk 6218 crore will be provided from internal resources. About 46 percent of the proposed ADP will be financed from our own resources.

22. 54 percent of the resource proposed for development budget is expected to come from external sources. In FY 1998-99 receipt from external sources has been estimated at Tk 7382 crore. This is 8.9 percent higher than external assistance in FY 1997-98 revised budget. It may be mentioned here that despite increased external assistance to Bangladesh, the availability of concessional loan and grant worldwide is decreasing. According to World Bank estimates, the amount of concessional loan and grant was $40.1 billion in 1996; it dropped to $37 billion in 1997. The increased external assistance to Bangladesh testifies to the continuing support of our development partners to our reform programmes. Since the present government assumed office, the World Bank president, ADB president, chief executives of OECF, UNICEF, IDB, IFAD and a number of ministers associated with external assistance programme visited Bangladesh and assured us of their continuing support, it is expected that the range of World Bank's minimum annual assistance to Bangladesh will be increased to $600-$650 million as against $ 400-$450 million in accordance with their new programme.

23. I would like to dwell first on the allocation for the agricultural sector. 64 percent of the employment opportunities in Bangladesh directly originates from agriculture. Keeping in view the problems of agriculture and farmers, the Election Manifesto of Bangladesh Awami League observed : "During last 5 years of its rule, the BNP government pushed agricultural sector into a destructive path. 18 farmers were gunned down by the previous government only because they asked for fertilizer at fair price. Dependence on external source for food has increased. Awami League will put an end to this situation." The present government has, during last two years, fulfilled its commitment to a large extent. The availability of fertilizer has been ensured all over the country by providing adequate subsidy. During FY 1992-93, the country's food production was 1.95 crore metric ton, in FY 1993-94, the production fell to 1.91 crore metric ton. In FY 1994-95 it further declined to 1.8 crore metric ton. On the other hand, after the assumption of office by the present government, food production increased to 2.03 crore metric ton in FY 1996-97. Despite shortfall in Aman production, food production during FY 1997-98 will be more than 2.05 crore metric tons. Record levels in food production during two consecutive years testify to the success of agricultural policies pursued by the present government. Allocation for Ministry of Agriculture in FY 1997-98 original budget was at Tk 186.34 crore. I propose to raise this allocation to Tk 212.48 crore in the revised budget. Estimated allocation for crop subsector in ADP 1997-98 was Tk 343.30 crore. In the proposed ADP for 1998-99 Tk 377.40 crore has been allocated for this subsector. To provide subsidy on essential inputs I propose to allocate Tk 129 crore for crop subsector in the revenue budget for FY 1998-99. As a result of prudent management it was possible to reduce expenditure on fertilizer subsidy. I propose an allocation of Tk 718.88 crore for crop subsector in FY 1998-99 by adding up the sums provided in ADP and revenue budget including subsidy. Allocation for Fisheries subsector in the ADP for 1997-98 was Tk 60.78 crore; this is proposed to be raised to Tk 85.60 crore in the ADP for FY 1998-99. Allocation for Livestock subsector in ADP 1997-98 was Tk 73.24 crore; in ADP 1998-99 the allocation has been proposed to be raised to Tk 80 crore.

24. I would now like to discuss the food management system. Despite a slippage from Aman production target due to adverse weather, food production in the current financial year will be about I percent higher than that of last financial year. According to the latest estimates, production of wheat will be around 18.02 lakh metric ton and that of Boro is expected to reach the record level of 79.79 lakh metric ton. Yet, as a precautionary measure, import of food grains under government's own financing has been increased. During FY 1996-97 quantity of imported food grains under government's own financing was only 1.77 lakh metric ton. During current financial year, quantity of imported food grains stood at 4.06 lakh metric ton, an increase of 2.29 lakh metric ton. Steps have been taken to encourage food grain import by private sector by reducing rates of duty and taxes on the imported rice and by providing adequate loan from the commercial banks. In FY 1996-97, only 2.37 lakh metric ton of food grain was imported by private sector. During the current financial year private sector has, so far, procured 10.19 lakh metric ton of food grain from abroad. According to estimates made by WFP in May, per capita daily availability of food grain is 441 grams in FY 1997-98. During FY 1996-97 and FY 1995-96, per capita availability was 425 and 433 grams respectively. As per these estimates, per capita availability of food has increased by 3.76 percent during the current financial year, compared to the previous financial year. With a view to stabilizing food grain prices about 1.62 lakh tons of grain has been distributed upto May 1998 through OMS. Moreover, to ensure fair prices to growers, target for internal procurement of wheat has been raised to 2 lakh metric ton from 1.3 lakh metric ton. If necessary, steps will be taken to procure more food grain from the internal source. Arrangements have also been made to procure maize on an experimental basis during the current financial year.

25. Water is indeed a resource. It is also a source of power and water will be the future in the 21st century. Owing to lack of proper management enormous water resources of Bangladesh has become a blessing on the one hand and a curse on the other. Hence with a view to achieving proper use of water resources, work has begun to prepare a National Water Management Plan. This plan will be completed within next three years. In the meantime, feasibility study of the Ganges barrage has been undertaken and work on preparation of project is under way. Besides a project for the reexcavation of the river Gorai has been undertaken with the assistance of the World Bank and the governments of Netherlands and Belgium to augment water supplies on an urgent basis in the Ganges basin region. In FY 1998-99 an allocation of Tk 901.04 crore and Tk 118.86 crore has been proposed for agencies under Ministry of Water Resources under ADP and revenue budget respectively. Allocation for the development of water resources stands at 6.54 percent of the ADP.

26. In the industrial sector private entrepreneurs are the key players. In order to encourage industrialization, a new industrial policy will be announced soon. Along with increased investment in the private sector, losses in public sector need to be reduced. Losses in the jute sector in particular have become a cause for great concern for the government. The previous government spent Tk 2467.56 crore towards the implementation of Jute Sector Reform Programme. However, there was no perceptible benefit from this programme. The interests of small and marginal farmers are closely linked to jute industry. Hence inspite of weaknesses and losses in jute industry, government support to jute sector will continue. In 1996-97, the total loss of Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation (BJMC) was Tk 251.7 crore and the loss is estimated at Tk 224.6 crore in 1997-98. Last year government gave guarantee for Tk 250 crore to keep the mills of BJMC running. It is not possible to issue such guarantees every year. Moreover no such guarantee is issued in favour of the private jute mills. Taking a comprehensive view of the various problems in the jute sector, I propose to provide special financial support for the export of jute goods from next financial year. This support will be available for both private and public sectors. As a result, government will have to spend an estimated amount ofTk 130 crore. Detailed instructions regarding this support will be issued in consultation with Ministry of Jute. I further propose to repay Tk 100 crore against guarantee given in favour of Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation. In the interest of the farmers, the jute mills will be kept running and to this end in FY 1998-99, I have proposed total allocation of Tk 230 crore.

27. Sick industry is not unique to Bangladesh, there are sick industries in capitalist economies throughout the world. Inevitable laws of capitalism render to-day's sun rise industries into sunset industries of tomorrow. The Ministry of Industries registered 1580 sick enterprises in 1992 and 1325 enterprises in 1996. The reasons for sickness of these enterprises are very complex. The industries were affected by mismanagement, political and economic instability, rapid liberalization and unexpected shift in economic policy. The small entrepreneurs were badly hit because they could not afford detailed feasibility study prior to investment. Therefore, in many countries of the world, small entrepreneurs are provided support by the government in various ways. In the current budget several proposals have been made to provide assistance to small sick industries already registered by the Ministry of Industries. A special committee headed by a retired judge (not below a district judge) will be set up to consider prayer for remission of interest of those enlisted sick industries which had borrowed upto Tk 50 lakh from the state owned banks. Taking into account the condition of sick industry, previous relief, if any, financial capacity, honesty, reputation and statements of the entrepreneur, the committee may recommend remission of interest and penal interest upto 100 percent. The Government will reimburse 50 percent of such remitted interest to banks. The amount due as determined by the special committee will be payable in three years in not more than 36 monthly installments. Those enlisted sick industries who borrowed more than Tk 50 lakh may submit proposals for compromise to banks. The banks will take appropriate decision in such cases taking into account the bank-client relationship. Broad guidelines will be laid down to resolve this problem on the basis of consultation with the banks. Sponsors of those sick industries who believe that their sick industries can be profitably rehabilitated may submit feasibility report to the concerned banks. The management of the public sector bank will take decisions on these proposals on the basis of government guidelines. Where court cases are pending, all proceedings will be taken within the legal framework without compromising the interest of the banks. With the implementation of these decisions, all government committees relating to sick industries will stand abolished and in future all sick industries will have to seek redress under the Bankruptcy Act. In order to compensate the losses of banks for the implementation of these measures, I have proposed to issue bonds worth Tk 60 crore inFY 1998-99. If needed, allocations for this purpose will be enhanced in the future.

Mr. Speaker,

28. Honourable members may please recall that I made the following observations in my budget speech of 1996-97, which was delivered within five weeks of assumption of office, on the consequences of the failure of the previous government in making essential investments: "The nation will have to bear the cost of electricity, gas, water shortages arising from the failure to make essential investments in time." Regretfully our apprehensions have proved true. The nation is carrying on this burden. We have taken all – out effort to mitigate exeats to the crisis in the shortest possible time. For expeditious exploration and expansion of gas resources, the whole country has been divided into 23 blocks and these blocks have been offered for investments by local and foreign investors. In the meantime, agreements have been concluded with four foreign companies for eight blocks. Work on eight blocks is going on in full swing. Meanwhile in the Sangu gas field five wells have been drilled and in Semutang field work on an exploration well is completed. In the Sylhet region, work on two more exploration wells is in progress. It is hoped that by July 1998, additional 300 million cubic feet of gas per day will be produced. Besides, negotiations are on for signing of contract for another 12 blocks. Gas is an invaluable resource for Bangladesh. Not only the present generation, but also the future generations have rights over this resource. Hence I want to give assurance to this august House that decisions regarding production and distribution of gas will be taken on the basis of long term policies. In addition to the foregoing private sector investments, the Annual Development Programme of FY 1997-98 provides for an allocation of Tk 530.46 crore for investments in gas, oil and natural resources sectors. In 1998-99 ADP this will be raised to Tk 592 crore. Adequate allocations have been made for Madhyapara Hardrock and Barapukuria Coal Mining projects.

29. Installed capacity for power generation in the country is 3091 megawatt. But available power generation capacity is 1900 - 2000 megawatt and the peak hour requirement is 2300 megawatt. In this background, arrangements have been made to put into operation 210 megawatt capacity sixth unit at Ghorashal and 100 megawatt barge-mounted power plant at Khulna by next August. In the private sector, agreements have been signed in October 1997 for setting up of two 100 megawatt barge-mounted power plants at Khulna and Haripur. In March 1998, an agreement was also signed for setting up of another 100 megawatt barge-mounted power plant at Haripur. It is hoped that by the first half of 1999 this power plant will start generating electricity. In September 1997 an agreement was signed with the Rural Power Company to set up a 60 megawatt gas turbine power plant at Mymensingh. This plant will be commissioned in March 1999. It is expected that soon a contract will be signed for setting up a 450 megawatt combined cycle power plant at Meghna Ghat in the private sector. In the revised ADP 1997-98, a sum of Tk 1252.50 crore has been proposed for allocation in the power sector. This allocation is 10.44 percent of the revised ADP. In the ADP for 1998-99 total allocation for power sector stands at Tk 1390 crore. Apart from power generation, this allocation will be available for investment in transmission and distribution. About 32 percent of the total allocation for power sector, that is Tk 445 crore will be spent for rural electrification.

30. The highest allocation in both the revised ADP in 1997-98 and ADP for 1998-99 went to transportation sector. In the revised ADP for FY 1997-98 total allocation for Bangabandhu bridge was Tk 568.5 crore. In FY 1998-99 total ADP allocation of this project is Tk 465 crore. Under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Jamuna bridge which is associated with sacred memory of Bangabandhu is nearing completion. By formally inaugurating Bangabandhu bridge on June 23, the Honourable Prime Minister will add a new milestone in the history of development of our nation. World Bank, Asian Development Bank and Government of Japan have provided assistance for the construction of the bridge. We are deeply grateful to them. When the present government took over, length of all highways, regional roads and feeder roads under the supervision of Roads and Highways Directorate stood at 16400 km. At present total length of these roads and highways is 20200 km. In other words 3800 km of roads were constructed or reconstructed during last two years. The construction of Pakshi bridge will commence shortly with the assistance of Japanese government. Formalities for external assistance for Rupsha bridge and Bhairab bridge will be completed soon. In the original revenue budget of FY 1997-98 for communications sector there was in allocation of Tk 277.69 crore. It has been raised to Tk 315 crore in FY 1998-99. Out of this allocation about Tk 260 crore will be spent for maintenance of roads. In the annual development programme of FY 1998-99 a sum ofTk 1162.66 crore has been allocated for 87 projects of Roads and Highways Directorate. Total allocation in ADP for Bangladesh Railway has been proposed at Tk 426.59 crore. A sum of Tk 113.26 crore has been proposed for inland water transport sector in FY 1998-99. Revolutionary changes have taken place in telecommunications. Total number of telephones in Bangladesh in June 1996 was 3.75 lakh. It increased to 4.92 lakh in January 1998. In order to encourage the expansion of telecommunications, a sum of Tk 337.98 crore has been provided in the ADP for 1998-99 in the public sector.

31. Rural roads are necessary not only for infusing dynamism in the economy; they play a very vital role in poverty alleviation and employment generation. In FY 1997-98, Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) constructed 2322 km paved road, 2404 km unpaved road and 3294 bridges/culverts. In 1997-98, total allocation for this organization was Tk 854.02 crore. In FY 1998-99 ADP, a sum of Tk 1012.01 crore is provided for LGED for constructing rural roads, markets and other infrastructures. In the revenue budget for FY 1998-99 LGED will receive an allocation of Tk 102 crore for maintenance of rural roads. Furthermore, 78.6 thousand metric ton of food grains have been allocated in favour of LGED under Food For Work Programme in FY 1998-99 budget. Proposals have been made to allocate Tk 200 crore for Thana Development Assistance, Tk 115 crore for the development of Pourashava and 3 block allocation of Tk 75 crore for local government institutions and development of Chittagong Hill Tracts in the ADP for FY 1998-99. A special provision of Tk 100 crore has been proposed for four municipal corporations. An allocation of Tk 60 crore has been proposed for District Councils. The Union Parishads will be allocated funds from Thana Development Assistance and Food For Works Programme to implement their development programmes. Furthermore, a sum of Tk 50.92 crore has been allocated for revenue expenditure of the Union Parishads. For provision of safe drinking water, Public Health Engineering Department has been allocated Tk 263.93 crore; Dhaka and Chittagong WASA Tk 140.83 crore.

32. Education sector is the highest recipient of the combined allocations of the revenue budget and the ADP. In the revised budget of FY 1997-98, total allocation stood at Tk 4199.98 crore. In FY 1998-99 it is proposed to be raised to Tk 4596.14 crore. Total allocation for FY 1998-99 is 9.4 percent higher than the revised allocation for last year. We are already receiving dividends of higher allocation in the education sector. A survey of Primary and Mass Education Division indicates that the rate of literacy has increased from 47 percent to 51 percent during last two years. For the first time in the history of Bangladesh, the majority of the people are literate. The subvention for the salaries of the registered and aided school teachers was revised for the first time in Bangladesh along with the revision of pay scales of the government employees. As a special gesture, the rate of subvention of teachers in the registered private primary school will be revised upward next fiscal year. National Committee on Education Policy has submitted its recommendation for radical reforms in the education sector. Steps have already been taken to implement these reforms in a phased manner. In last fiscal year I proposed special allocation for libraries and science laboratories with a view to encouraging quality in education. This measure was specially appreciated. In FY 1998-99 propose to raise the allocation for libraries from Tk 2 crore to Tk 3 crore and for scientific laboratories equipment from Tk 3 to Tk 5 crore. Furthermore, a special block allocation of Tk 12 crore in last year budget for encouraging scientific research was made. The research establishments have been specially benefited by this measure. I therefore, propose to keep a similar allocation of Tk 12 crore for this purpose in FY 1998-99.

33. The provision of Health services is essential for human resource development. It is also a constitutional right of the citizens. In the original revenue budget of FY 1997-98, the original allocation was Tk 786.25 crore. In the revenue budget for 1998-99, it has been proposed to raise this to Tk 851.54 crore. In FY 1997-98, total ADP allocation for Health and Family Welfare sector was Tk 1111.62 crore. In FY 1998-99, it has been proposed to raise it to Tk 1373 crore. The proposed combined allocation in revenue budget and annual development programme for this sector in FY 1998-99 is Tk 2224.54 crore. This allocation is 17.2 percent higher than FY 1997-98 allocation. Total allocation in health sector is about 1.4 percent of GDP. In order to encourage higher education in health sector Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University has already been set up. In the meanwhile 4000 posts of nurses and 1296 posts of doctors have been created in the first phase. A strategy has been chalked out to integrate all development and revenue activities during the period 1998-99 for the health and family planning sector under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. With the assistance of $ I billion from the development partners a project will be launched shortly for reforms in this sector.

34. With the assumption of office by Bangladesh Awami League which was the standard bearer and the embodiment of the liberation war, there has been a new wave in the arena of sports and culture. In the original revenue budget of FY 1997-98, total allocation for sports was Tk 12.75 crore. An additional special allocation of Tk 12 crore has been made (including an allocation of Tk 10.5 crore in the revised budget of 1997-98) for the installation of flood-light in Bangabandhu Stadium. Total allocation for sports in the revenue budget has been increased to 18.62 crore. In FY 1998-99, allocation for sports has been fixed at Tk 40.4 crore. For youth development a provision of Tk 63.77 has been provided in FY 1998-99 budget. In order to celebrate the centenary of the rebel poet Kazi Nazrul Islam in a befitting manner, I propose to allocate Tk 20 lakh in current year's revised budget and Tk 2.25 crore in FY 1998-99 revenue budget.

35. The freedom fighters are the source of pride for Bangladesh. Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman established Freedom Fighters Welfare Trust for rehabilitation and maintenance of wounded freedom fighters. Unfortunately, this trust has turned out to be an unprofitable organization owing to past mismanagement. All welfare activities of the freedom fighters are now dependent on government grants. For a long time the rate of allowances for freedom fighters remain unchanged. In order to raise the rate of allowance of freedom fighters from 1st July 1998, I am proposing to increase allocation under this head from Tk 6.6 crore to Tk 9.0 crore.

36. The members of the defense forces are indefatigable sentinels of our freedom and sovereignty. It is our moral duty to provide adequate resources for national defense. In the original budget of FY 1997-98 net allocation for defense was Tk 2457.53 crore. In the revised budget for FY 1997-98, it was increased to Tk 2600.8 crore. In FY 1998-99, I propose to raise it to Tk 2786.43 crore. However, it may be mentioned that the total budget for Ministry of Defense stands at Tk 2902.27 crore including allocations for Department for Meteorology, Survey Department, SPARRSO, Freedom Fighters' Welfare Trust, Cadet Colleges and Defense division. This increase in the defense budget is essential in national interest. Total defense expenditure constitutes about 1.8 percent of GDP in FY 1998-99. Human Development Report, 1997 indicates that the average defense spending in all developing countries in 1995 stood at 3.1 percent of GDP. Defense expenditure as share of GDP in Bangladesh is less than that of India (2.5 percent), Pakistan (6.5 percent) and Sri Lanka (4.9 percent).

37. Internal security is specially important for economic development. The allocation for police force has been significantly increased since the assumption of office by the present government. In the revised budget for 1995-96 total allocation for police was Tk 518.67 crore. In the revised budget for 1997-98 it has been raised to Tk 646.11 crore. I propose to raise this allocation to Tk 675.46 crore in the budget for FY 1998-99. The annual budget for police has been raised by Tk 156.79 crore since the assumption of office by the present government. Compared to allocation in the revised budget of 1995-96, it has been raised by about 30 percent. We hope that with the additional resources the Bangladesh Police will be able to successfully complete its arduous task.

38. The appointment of a Pay Commission to review the pay scales of the public employees was an election commitment of the present government. Taking into account the recommendations of the Pay Commission a three-phase programme for new pay scales was introduced with effect from 1st July 1997. As a result of the implementation of this new scale, additional expenditure to the tune of Tk 888.41 crore including Tk 793.07 crore in revenue budget and Tk 95.34 crore in development budget was incurred in FY 1997-98. This will involve further additional expenditure of Tk 495.14 crore including development expenditure in FY 1998-99 and Tk 691.32 crore in 1999 - 2000. In total a sum of Tk 2074.87 crore will be spent for pay hike in three stages including pay rises in development projects. The total requirement of new pay scale has been included under respective heads in the budget allocations of the ministries, no new pay scale is equally beneficial for all groups. Benefits vary in the process of pay fixation. However, the Government is sympathetically considering the demands of various groups, and a block allocation of Tk 110 crore has been proposed for this purpose in the budget of FY 1998-99. The expenditure on salaries has increased by 1334.64 crore in the revenue budget and Tk 158.91 crore in development budget in FY 1998-99 over the expenditure prior to implementation of new pay scale.

39. Environment pollution in Bangladesh is not a mere threat for the future generation. Polluted environment is already a serious threat to present generation. All-out efforts will be made for the protection of environment. A project for the preservation of bio-diversity in coastal areas and wetland has already been launched. Another project with the assistance of UNDP has been undertaken for integrated information management on environment. A ten year master plan for forestry has already been approved. Measures have already been taken for the intensification of social forestry.

Mr. Speaker,

40. The budget is not about numbers. The budget is prepared for the welfare of the people. Our budget is a people-oriented budget. It is a budget based on social justice. We want to empower disadvantaged groups. We want to remove the despair of the unemployed. We want to provide minimum safety to helpless elderly. We want to remove the shadows of hunger and terror from the faces of the innocent women and children. We know that all this could not be accomplished in one go. We are, therefore, constructing social safety net in a planned way. We have introduced monthly allowance for four lakh elderly poor people in current fiscal year. Honourable Prime Minister inaugurated this programme on 31st May, 1998. We have enacted legislation for setting up Employment-Generation (Karma Sangsthan) Bank. This Bank will commence operations within this month. A sum of Tk 50 crore has been provided in the current year's budget as government contribution to the Bank's capital. I propose to provide Tk 25 crore additional allocation to this Bank next year. A Trustee Board under the Chairmanship of Honourable Prime Minister has been set up for operating the Housing Fund. It has started operation with a capital of Tk 50 crore. I propose to provide additional Tk 8 crore to this fund in next year's budget.

41. We want to include those who are outside the mainstream of economic activities. We want to empower them so that they can act on their own initiative. We want to eliminate the oppression of women and children from this land forever. We intend to create opportunities for the disabled to take part in the economic and social activities. For this purpose I am proposing to establish a Social Development Fund of Tk 18 crore in FY 1998-99. Grants from this fund will be used for providing shelter to shelterless women and children. In many cases women and children cannot approach courts for justice for lack of funds. Grants from this fund will be provided for legal aid for women and children. Grants will also be provided to encourage innovative projects for disabled.

42. On the job training is essential for generation of employment. This kind of training is essential for new entrants to the labour market. Furthermore, it will be difficult for many of those workers who availed of voluntary retirement to find new jobs. I propose a special allocation of Tk 15 crore in the next budget for encouraging on the job training. We welcome private initiatives for similar training.

43. Poverty is our most difficult, yet the most pressing problem. There is no instantaneous solution for this, it will have to be resolved through a long-drawn process. We are following a three-fold strategy in poverty alleviation. First, we are directly transferring resources to target groups. Total resources to the tune of Tk 1579 crore has been earmarked in the revenue and development budget for Food for Works, VGD, relief and pension for the elderly in FY 1998-99. Secondly, allocation for sectors contributing to poverty alleviation have been increased. In FY 1998-99 a total sum of Tk 5116.2 crore has been allocated to heads and sub-heads related to poverty alleviation such as agriculture, rural development, rural electricity, primary and mass education, health and family welfare, women and youth development, district council, thana development assistance, Chittagong Hill Tracts etc. Total allocation for poverty alleviation in FY 1998-99 is Tk 6695.2 crore which is 4.1 percent higher than comparable allocation last year. Third, micro credit programmes are being encouraged to promote self employment for the poor. Eleven divisions and ministries have already undertaken 25 projects for distribution of micro-credit from the exchequer. A sum of Tk 387.86 crore has been earmarked for distribution of micro credits through these projects. Palli Karma Shahayak Foundation which was set up by the Government with the assistance of the World Bank has distributed credit to the tune of Tk 933.76 crore through its associates in the first nine months of FY 1997-98. The Grameen Bank with the assistance of the government have disbursed Tk 1446.94 crore as micro credit. Other NGOs have delivered credit of more than Tk one thousand crore to the poor. These micro credit programmes have rapidly created opportunities for self-employment.

Mr. Speaker,

44. The invisible hand of the market cannot alone ensure development. The foremost requirement for development is good governance. The urgency of good governance is not a theoretical postulate for us, we realized in the hard way its imperativeness through a process of protracted democratic struggle. The present government is, therefore, determined to establish good governance and transparency in all walks of life. Important measures have already been undertaken for administrative reforms. Initiatives have already been undertaken to appoint Ombudsman under Article 77 of the Constitution of the People's Republic of Bangladesh. We hope that the Ombudsman will play a significant role in establishing transparency in our administration.

45. Economic growth is necessary but not a sufficient condition for development. Growth is a means and not the end of development. Development in the true sense implies the enlargement of the capacity of the individuals so that everybody could grow on one's own. The poor do not want compassion, they want opportunities to change their fate through hard work. We will have to compete not only within the country but also in the wider world to occupy our rightful place in the comity of nations. In this globalized world it is not possible to bury ones head like the ostrich. We will not be able to survive in the globalized system if we want to remain confined to our traditional world. We will have to think anew. It is not sufficient to do what we are doing, we will have to solve many problems innovatively. As the distinguished philosopher Francis Bacon has rightly said, "He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils, for time is the greatest innovator."

 

 

Part II